Friday, November 6, 2020

First Post Election Update

 I created a second video on the US election for my class, which I thought might be an interesting follow-up to my final pre-election video, which I posted on youTube and published an article on it here (with an embedded video link).

To summarize, the election is not yet called, they are still counting votes. As of this morning, my election prediction of 269 electoral college votes for Biden and 269 for Trump (see video in above linked article) is remarkably close to how things appear to be panning out. My prediction that the election is very very close appears to have been correct, which was in sharp contrast to all mainstream pollsters, who were all predicting a major Biden victory. I did think Trump was going to scrape through the electoral college system and eventually win the presidency in a long drawn out process involving Congress, this appears to not be the case. Trump is trying to fight the results in court, so that may result in drawing out the process of having an official definitive winner. I mentioned in my prediction video that it is a tight race and either candidate was in a position to win. 

I have not updated the analysis to include polling bias for 2020 as the final vote counts are not yet in. There will be more updates in the future for my class, so I will likely add more posts here as well.

Here is the video from youTube: